U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett leads the Democratic primary field with 51% support in a new Texas Southern University poll, ahead of state Rep. James Talarico at 43%.
Crockett’s early edge appears driven by name recognition, while voters see Talarico as stronger in a general election against Republicans.
Republicans remain favored to hold the seat in 2026, with betting markets giving the GOP a nearly 80% chance despite relatively narrow general election margins.
A new poll suggests Rep. Jasmine Crockett has taken an early lead in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Texas, as Democrats once again test whether the traditionally Republican state could be competitive in a high-stakes 2026 election.
The survey, conducted by Texas Southern University Dec. 9-11 among 1,600 likely Democratic primary voters and cited by RealClear Polling, found Crockett leading the field with 51% support. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico followed at 43%, while 6% of respondents said they were undecided. The poll was taken after Crockett entered the race and after Rep. Colin Allred exited the Senate contest to run for Congress.
Crockett’s early advantage appears to be driven in part by name recognition. According to the poll, 94% of likely Democratic primary voters said they know enough about Crockett to form an opinion, compared with 79% who said the same of Talarico. Early surveys often benefit better-known candidates, suggesting Talarico could gain ground as the race develops, RealClear Polling noted.
The data also points to differences in perceived general election strength. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they believe Talarico would be more effective at persuading Republicans to vote for him in a general election, compared with 29% who said the same of Crockett. While Crockett holds a higher favorable rating overall, 85% to Talarico’s 77%, she also carries higher unfavorability, with 9% viewing her negatively versus just 2% for Talarico.
On the Republican side, the race remains unsettled, according to RealClear Polling. A recent poll from co/efficient shows Sen. John Cornyn narrowly leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, 28% to 27%. Rep. Wesley Hunt trailed at 19%.
Texas law requires a runoff if no candidate receives a majority in the primary, a scenario that could benefit Paxton, according to RealClear Polling. The outlet added that Hunt has said he would endorse Paxton if he fails to advance, and betting markets currently give Paxton a 59% chance of winning the nomination, compared with 29% for Cornyn and 14% for Hunt.
General election matchups continue to favor Republicans, though margins appear relatively narrow. A University of Houston and Texas Southern University poll conducted in late September and cited by RealClear Polling found Paxton leading Crockett by two points and Talarico by three points. Cornyn led Crockett by six points and Talarico by three points.
Despite those closer margins, Texas’ long record of voting Republican statewide remains a significant hurdle for Democrats. Betting markets currently give Republicans a 79% chance of holding the seat, according to RealClear Polling.
The contest is expected to be central to the battle for Senate control in 2026. RealClear Polling reported that for Democrats to flip the chamber, they would likely need to win Texas while also capturing seats in Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, and holding seats in Georgia and Michigan. The outlet added that a Democratic win in Texas would likely signal a broader national shift rather than a one-off upset.