Young women are increasingly likely to be childless and unmarried, and those patterns are occurring regardless of whether they have a college degree — pointing to shifts in priorities and behavior, according to a recent study.
The Institute for Family Studies (IFS) analyzed data from the Current Population Survey collected between 1995 and 2024 to examine women’s fertility and marriage trends. The study questioned the popular theory that a particular subgroup, such as working-class women or highly-educated women, is driving America’s fertility decline.
The study divided the women into four birth cohorts — those born in the late 1970s, early 1980s, late 1980s, and early 1990s — and compared outcomes by educational attainment.
College-educated women were more likely to have fewer children than those without degrees, the study found. However, fertility at age 30 dropped significantly in both groups. Between the 1970s and 1990s birth cohorts, fertility fell by 31% among women with degrees and by 17% among those without.
Similar trends occurred among the shares of women who were childless or unmarried at 30. Childlessness at 30 rose by 31% among college-educated women and by 50% among those who did not go to college. Meanwhile, the share of women who had not married by 30 increased by 47% among those with degrees and by 50% among those without.
Striking: Childlessness at age 30 has surged to:
— Brad Wilcox (@BradWilcoxIFS) May 4, 2026
✔️ 33% for less-educ women
✔️ 63% for college-educ women
New @kearney_melissa @phil_wellesley: pic.twitter.com/GaBFcUOCr5
According to IFS, the consistent fertility and marriage patterns were “striking” and disproved theories that one socioeconomic group is responsible for the fertility decline. The study suggests that younger women “are placing relatively less emphasis on early family formation and parenthood,” with their views of marriage and family being shaped by shifting social norms and economic and relationship factors, IFS said.
“In short, the decline in fertility in the United States is not a story about one group of women delaying or foregoing childbearing,” IFS wrote. “It is a broad, population-wide shift that cuts across educational lines, reflecting deep changes in how young adults are organizing their lives and making decisions about family formation.”