Supreme Court case could shift 19 House seats toward GOP

Republicans could pick up as many as 19 congressional seats if the Supreme Court strikes down a key part of the Voting Rights Act in a major redistricting case argued Oct. 15.

The case, Louisiana v. Callais, stems from a dispute over whether Louisiana must create a second majority-Black congressional district under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 — a provision meant to protect minority voters from discrimination. In redistricting, Section 2 has led to the creation of “majority-minority districts,” designed to amplify minority voting power.

The case has now widened into a bigger question: whether Section 2 itself is constitutional. Louisiana officials contend that requiring states to consider race when drawing maps violates the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause and the 15th Amendment’s ban on racial discrimination in voting. 

In a short order issued Aug. 1, the justices instructed parties to be ready to address whether the “intentional creation of a second majority-minority congressional district violates the Fourteenth or Fifteenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitution.”

A ruling is expected by June 2026. The justices first heard Callais in March 2025 but deferred a decision and ordered a rehearing for Oct. 15. 

If the court limits or overturns Section 2, Republicans could redraw as many as 19 districts nationwide, according to a report by Democratic-affiliated advocacy groups Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund.

The report also said that, combined with ongoing GOP redistricting in states like Texas and Missouri, Republicans could secure up to 27 additional House seats compared with the 2024 map. 

Meanwhile, CNN reporters project that Republicans are already positioned to make significant gains through redistricting alone. CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Oct. 15 that if both parties “max out” redistricting, Republicans could gain about seven seats overall — not including any potential Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act, which he said could add up to 17 more GOP seats. 

“It’s a different new landscape,” Enten said. “And we’re not quite sure how much Democrats will have to be ahead in the national House vote in order to gain control.”

On Oct. 14, a CNN on-air reporter said that Texas could pick up as many as five seats, with additional GOP gains possible in Ohio (two or three), Missouri (one), North Carolina (one), Indiana (one or two), Kansas (one), and New Hampshire (one). He said Florida is still being discussed but described it as “another gold mine” for Republicans.

He said that Democrats, on the other hand, could offset some of those losses with potential gains in Utah (one), California (five), and Maryland (one).