Data analyst: MAGA Republicans strongest wing of GOP voter base going into midterms
President Donald Trump’s supporters are just as motivated as Democrats to cast their ballots in November’s elections, according to CNN analysis, but non-MAGA Republicans may pose an issue.
President Donald Trump motivated Republican voters to turn out in droves in 2024, winning both the electoral college and the national popular vote and reclaiming the White House. With crucial midterm elections drawing nearer, Trump just might inspire his supporters to vote red again, according to data from CNN.
Reviewing recent polling data, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten explained that Republicans who support the President’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) agenda are far more likely to support both Trump and GOP candidates in the midterms than their non-MAGA Republican counterparts are.
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Ahead of the 2024 election, non-MAGA Republican voters favored Trump over his opponent, then-Vice President Kamala Harris, by a 56-point margin. Nearly two years later, Trump’s approval rating among that same demographic is nearly evenly split, with only 7% more approving of Trump’s job performance than those who disapprove.
Enten contrasted these numbers against MAGA Republicans’ support for Trump. In the 2024 election, 99% of MAGA Republicans favored Trump over Harris, a statistic Enten jokingly called “surprising — I might have thought it would be 100%.” Now, Trump’s approval rating still stands at 98% among MAGA Republicans, representing no statistically significant difference. Additionally, 98% of MAGA Republicans plan to vote for Republican congressional candidates in November.
According to Enten, 71% of Democrats say that they intend to vote in the midterms. While fewer than half (46%) of non-MAGA voters also said that they are likely to vote, MAGA Republicans matched Democrats’ motivation: 71% said that they are certain to vote in November.
However, Enten warned that only 50%-60% of Republicans identify as MAGA Republicans, so that the party will still have to fight to maintain its congressional majorities. Among Democrats, 95% say that they plan to vote for Democratic congressional candidates. Among Republicans, only 87% say that they intend to back the GOP.
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