Gallup: US economic confidence improves in July but remains pessimistic

Americans’ confidence in the economy improved in July, but two-thirds said they still believe conditions are getting worse, according to a Gallup poll released July 27.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index climbed to -31 from -38 in June, continuing its recovery from a recent low of -45 in May. The index ranges from +100, indicating universally positive views, to -100, indicating universally negative views.

The survey — conducted July 1-19 among a random sample of 1,200 adults — found that 22% of Americans rated current economic conditions as excellent or good, up from 16% in May. Forty-four percent described conditions as poor, down from 49% in May, while 32% called them only fair. 

Americans also became somewhat less pessimistic about the economy’s direction. Twenty-eight percent said conditions were getting better, up from 20% in May, while 67% said they were getting worse, down from 76%.

Republicans and independents accounted for most of the increase in economic confidence. Republicans’ index score climbed from +22 in May to +41 in July, making them the only partisan group with a positive assessment of the economy. Independents’ score improved from -58 to -38 in July. Democrats remained overwhelmingly negative, with their score moving only slightly from -80 to -76.

Gallup said it conducted most of the survey after a brief ceasefire in the Iran war but before renewed hostilities drove gas prices higher. The polling organization reported earlier declines in economic confidence coincided with rising energy costs and war-related inflation.

“Whether this modest improvement continues may depend in part on energy costs,” Gallup said. “Gas prices, which eased throughout June, have climbed again in recent weeks as the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has broken down and hostilities have resumed in the region. If prices at the pump keep rising, that could test whether Americans' improved economic outlook holds into the fall.”

Economic issues are likely to play a significant role as voters approach the November midterm elections. As Zeale News previously reported, a Pew Research Center survey conducted July 6-12 found that economic issues ranked first among the topics registered voters wanted congressional candidates in their districts to address. 

>> Pew survey: Economy tops voters’ midterm agenda; Democrats hold early edge <<