New poll shows tight Senate race between Talarico and Paxton in Texas

Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are running nearly even in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll that found economic concerns, candidate character, and party loyalty shaping voters’ choices.

Talarico received 51% support among likely voters to Paxton’s 49% in the survey conducted Oct. 8-16 among 1,492 registered Texas voters. The two-point gap falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for likely voters.

Cost of living ranked as the most important of four issues the survey asked likely voters to consider when choosing a Senate candidate, with 56% selecting it, followed by immigration and the border at 23%, healthcare at 12%, and taxes at 9%.

Sixty-seven percent of registered voters said higher prices had caused financial hardship or made their family finances difficult.

Talarico received more favorable assessments of his economic policies. Forty-three percent of registered voters said his policies would improve their family’s financial situation, compared with 38% who said they would make it worse. For Paxton, 33% expected an improvement, and 44% expected their finances to worsen.

Overall, 76% of likely voters said candidates’ issue positions mattered “a lot” in their Senate choice, compared with 49% who said the same about personal qualities.

Voters gave Talarico stronger ratings on personal character. Among likely voters, 54% said he had the right character to serve as a senator, while 46% disagreed. Paxton received a positive assessment from 41%, while 59% said he lacked the right character.

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The candidates’ supporters also differed in their motivations. Among Talarico voters, 48% said their main reason for supporting him was that they liked him, 30% wanted to oppose Paxton, and 22% cited his status as the Democratic nominee. Among Paxton voters, 23% said their main reason for supporting him was that they liked him, 36% wanted to oppose Talarico, and 41% cited his status as the Republican nominee.

Talarico led among independent likely voters, 65% to 35%. The poll found a gender divide, with women favoring Talarico 56% to 44% and men backing Paxton 55% to 45%. Talarico received support from 83% of black likely voters and 60% of Hispanic likely voters, while Paxton drew 62% of white likely voters.

Turnout could prove critical. Among registered voters, 87% of Democrats said they would definitely vote in November, compared with 76% of Republicans and 77% of independents.

Younger voters favored Talarico but expressed less certainty about voting. Among likely voters under 30, Talarico led 60% to 39%. Paxton led among those 65 and older, 59% to 41%. However, just 58% of registered voters under 30 said they would definitely vote, compared with 91% of those 65 and older.

President Donald Trump’s standing offered a mixed backdrop to the race. Among registered voters, 45% approved of his job performance and 55% disapproved. However, 54% approved of his administration’s program to find and deport immigrants in the country illegally, giving Paxton a stronger issue to campaign on. 

Among likely voters, 34% described their Senate vote as a way to oppose Trump, 26% as a way to support him, and 40% said their vote was not about the President.

Trump has repeatedly urged Texas voters to elect Paxton, warning that a Democratic victory would threaten his administration’s agenda, as Zeale News previously reported. His Oct. 7 rally in San Antonio marked his third Texas visit in a month.

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Among Paxton voters, 11% described Trump’s endorsement as a major reason for their support, 34% called it one of several reasons, and 55% said it was not a reason for their choice.

Campaign outreach was roughly even: 35% of registered voters reported contact on behalf of Talarico’s campaign, compared with 36% for Paxton’s.

Texas gubernatorial race

Elsewhere on the ballot, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott received 52% support among likely voters, compared with Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s 48%, according to the CBS poll. Among registered voters, 49% approved of Abbott’s job performance and 51% disapproved. 

Early voting in Texas began Oct. 19 and runs through Oct. 30. Election Day is Nov. 3.

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