Polling predictions conflict with other voter metrics as voter turnout remains crucial for GOP

Polling ahead of November’s consequential midterms is showing mixed results for Republicans, but there are some signs of hope. While numerous polls suggest a “blue wave” threatening even Republican congressional seats considered “safe” — and dead heats in Senate races like Texas’ — some data point to a potential “undertow” that may boost or bolster Republican candidates.

According to CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten, Republicans are in a significantly better position in swing states in terms of voter registration than they have been in years.

In Pennsylvania, Republican registration is up seven percentage points over the same time heading into midterm elections in 2018, during President Donald Trump’s first term. Republican registrations are up eight points in North Carolina, five points in Nevada, and four points in Arizona.

“So when you take a look at how people are actually registering — this is not polling data — compared to where we were eight years ago, Republicans are doing considerably better in what are the swing states, at least normally, in presidential elections,” Enten said.

The data analyst said that while Democrats are gaining in national polls, those gains are not translating to actual voter registrations, an area where Democrats have historically dominated.

Pollster and political analyst Matt Towery, who was one of the only pollsters to correctly predict Trump’s victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, said Oct. 8 that there is a Republican “undertow” that most polls are not taking into account ahead of the midterms. While most Republican voters are, according to polls, less enthusiastic to vote this year than their Democratic counterparts, there “is another definite wave we are seeing.”

“Voters 65 and over are the most enthusiastic to vote of all demographics. And they have moved back to the GOP in big numbers,” Towery said. “Races are close in red states but also close in some blue states. A most unusual election cycle! Lots of states are battleground states that never have been before.”

Rasmussen Reports found that a majority (54%) of voters generally are enthusiastic about voting in November, but voters aged 65 and older are the most enthusiastic demographic by age.

Only one-third (33%) of voters aged 18 to 29 described themselves as “very excited” to vote, as did 44% of voters aged 30 to 39, 47% of voters aged 40 to 49, and 56% of voters aged 50 to 64. Among those aged 65 and older, 74% said that they are “very excited” to vote.

Fox News political analyst Guy Benson similarly predicted that while Republicans may suffer some losses, Democrats may not win by the margins or scale that polls are anticipating. Since 2016, he pointed out, most polls chronically oversample Democrats, giving the party an artificial boost in polling numbers.

“There aren’t many Republicans who are expecting a good midterm election this cycle, or even a decent one. The prevailing question seems to be: How bad will it get?” he wrote in an Oct. 9 Washington Examiner column.

“Sky-high Democratic enthusiasm, coupled with independents swinging back toward the Democrats (despite the opposition party’s continued unpopularity), is a recipe for a tough night for the party in power,” he continued. “But what could make the difference between tough and disastrous is participation and engagement among Republican voters.”

Benson warned against Republican “doomerism,” writing that predicting a major Democratic victory and thus growing demoralized and demotivated “can depress turnout, making those sentiments a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

He noted that polling predictions favoring Democrats aren’t adding up with voter registration and vote counts in key areas, largely because Republican voters simply aren’t responding to polls, thus generating overrepresentation of Democratic voters.

“Things can be true until they’re not, and there’s no question that multiple factors suggest Team Red is in some serious trouble this fall,” Benson wrote.

“A 2006 or 2008 wipeout is entirely possible. But it’s not inevitable,” he concluded. “If a small handful of states once again see similar polling failures along now-familiar lines, Republicans may overperform once again — and the Senate majority could be saved. The GOP had better hope its voters are ready to make this happen, because otherwise, the picture looks fairly grim.”