Rogers holds slim polling lead as El-Sayed defends tax hikes, Piker ties

Republican Mike Rogers holds a razor-thin average polling advantage over Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed as of Aug. 9, while the two Michigan Senate campaigns test sharply different messages following El-Sayed’s primary victory.

The RealClearPolling average places Rogers at 44.3% and El-Sayed at 44.0% and rates the contest a toss-up. All four surveys included in the average were conducted before the Democratic primary, however, and there is not yet a post-primary measure of the race.

The latest poll, conducted by EPIC-MRA from July 24–31, gave Rogers a 46%–43% lead. A July 28–29 MIRS/Mitchell Research survey found a 45%–45% tie. Quantus Insights put El-Sayed ahead 45%–44% in a June 29–30 poll, while a May 20–23 TIPP survey gave him a 43%–42% edge.

Between 10% and 15% of voters in each survey supported neither candidate or remained undecided, indicating that the contest is still highly unsettled.

Rogers moved Aug. 7 to capitalize on the bitter Democratic primary, releasing a video in which he appears seated beside his wife Kristi and directly courts supporters of Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., who lost to El-Sayed 48.5%–47.5%.

Rogers told Democratic voters who felt El-Sayed did not represent their values that “there is still hope.” In the ad, Rogers tells parents, young voters worried about housing, and families concerned about taxes and wages, “You have a home with us.”

The Republican said the choice was “far greater than just left versus right” and accused El-Sayed’s movement of anger, division, “calls for violence,” and activism for positions outside Michigan’s mainstream.

El-Sayed countered with a unity message at an Aug. 7 Democratic rally in Detroit attended by more than 1,000 people. He thanked Stevens and former candidate Mallory McMorrow, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson were among the Democrats urging the party to unite.

El-Sayed said Aug. 9 that the primary disagreements were much smaller than Democrats’ common goals. He also disclosed that he had held a “warm and inspiring” Friday call with former President Barack Obama, whom he hopes will campaign in Michigan.

The nominee nevertheless used TV interviews the same day to reaffirm positions that Rogers and national Republicans are expected to target. On NBC’s “Meet the Press,” El-Sayed defended Medicare for All and acknowledged that an ordinary employee would pay “a little bit more in taxes” instead of private health-insurance premiums. He called that exchange worthwhile because coverage would no longer depend on a person’s job.

“Weird. I thought Abdul’s campaign promise was more money in your pocket,” Rogers responded on X. “This sounds a lot like more money for the government.”

El-Sayed also declined to say whether he would campaign again with far-left streamer Hasan Piker. Piker said in 2019 that “America deserved 9/11,” a remark he later walked back. El-Sayed called it a “dumb statement,” said America did not deserve the attacks, and dismissed continued questions about his association with Piker as “gotcha politics” and a return to “cancel culture.”

As Zeale News previously reported, Piker campaigned for El-Sayed on the eve of the primary. His appearance in the El-Sayed campaign drew widespread attention to a resurfaced video clip in which Piker praised the mass-murderous dictator Mao Zedong as one of the world’s great leaders. CatholicVote Vice President of Advocacy Joshua Mercer responded to El-Sayed’s victory by urging Michigan Catholics to reject what he called the nominee’s “radical socialist policies” and elect Rogers.