China’s birthrate fell to its lowest level on record in 2025, extending the country’s population decline for a fourth consecutive year and intensifying demographic pressures on the world’s second-largest economy, Hannah Miao reported Jan. 19 for The Wall Street Journal.

China’s total population dropped to 1.405 billion at the end of 2025, down from 1.408 billion a year earlier, a drop of 3.39 million people, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics cited by the Journal. The drop reflects a sharp fall in births alongside a continued rise in deaths. 

New births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, down from 9.54 million in 2024. The birthrate declined to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, compared with 6.77 the previous year. Both figures mark the lowest levels recorded since 1949, the founding of the People’s Republic of China, Miao reported.

Meanwhile, deaths rose to 11.31 million in 2025, up from 10.93 million in 2024, widening the gap between births and deaths. According to the Journal, China’s population has been shrinking since 2022, when deaths first outnumbered births. 

The decline in 2025 followed a temporary rebound in births the year before. Much of 2024 fell during the Year of the Dragon, which is traditionally viewed in Chinese culture as an auspicious time for marriage and childbirth, Miao reported. Outside of that spike, births have fallen steadily since 2017.

Miao attributed the long-term trend in part to the legacy of China’s one-child policy, which was in place for decades before ending in 2015. The policy, she argued, accelerated population aging and pushed fertility rates well below replacement level, raising concerns about future labor shortages and slower economic growth.

Chinese authorities have introduced a range of measures aimed at encouraging families to have more children, including child-care subsidies and other forms of support. Many experts, however, say such policies are unlikely to reverse population decline, according to the Journal.

Unlike other countries facing aging populations, China has little immigration to offset falling birthrates, Miao concluded, leaving demographic change as a growing constraint on the country’s economic outlook.