Florida Democrats flipped two Republican-held state legislative seats March 24, including the Palm Beach district that contains President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home. The GOP defeats represented the eighth and ninth previously red seats to flip blue during Trump's current term as President.
Republicans, meanwhile, have not managed to flip a single Democratic seat in the same period.
Emily Gregory, a fitness business owner and first-time candidate, defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples in Florida House District 87 by roughly 797 votes, or 2.4 percentage points. Trump had carried that district by 10.6 points in 2024. The previous Republican holder, Mike Caruso, won the same seat by 19 points that year before resigning to become Palm Beach County clerk.
On the same night, Democrat Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran and union organizer, defeated Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow in a Florida Senate special election in Hillsborough County by 408 votes — another district Democrats were not expected to win.
Zachary Donnini, VoteHub's head of data science, flagged the Palm Beach win in particular. "Donald Trump will now be represented by a Democrat in the Florida State House," he wrote on X March 24. "Democrats flip Trump+11 FL HD-87 in a major upset, continuing their recent special election surge. It's their third flip this month — and eighth of the Trump presidency."
BREAKING — Donald Trump will now be represented by a Democrat in the Florida State House.
— Zachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini) March 24, 2026
Democrats flip Trump+11 FL HD-87 in a major upset, continuing their recent special election surge. It’s their third flip this month — and eighth of the Trump presidency. https://t.co/lHroR3gjzD
Donnoni’s assessment drew attention from conservative commentators. Attorney Robert Barnes wrote on X: "Independents are so massively anti-Republican that GOP can't even hold seats that they outvote Democrats by double digits & outspend them 10 to 1."
Independents are so massively anti-Republican that GOP can't even hold seats that they outvote Democrats by double digits & outspend them 10 to 1. https://t.co/9TPpXh1MLK
— Robert Barnes (@barnes_law) March 25, 2026
Commentator Daniel Horowitz added: "It's not that Rs didn't turn out. It's that the district has to be insanely RED to afford losing Independents by worse than Watergate numbers. Watch for this to be the constant theme."
Among independent voters, Democrats now hold a two-to-one edge — 44% to 22% — in generic congressional preference, according to recent polling.
Blue sweep
The Democratic winning streak has been building since January. Democrats flipped two Minnesota House districts, then won Louisiana House District 60 by 62% to 38% in a seat Trump had carried by 13 points.
On Feb. 1, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a Texas state Senate district Trump had won by 17 points, despite the fact that Rehmet’s campaign was outspent by $2 million. On March 3, Democrat Alex Holladay won a House seat in Arkansas with nearly 60% of the vote.
On average, Democrats are running roughly 13 points ahead of Kamala Harris's 2024 margins in these special elections,according to political scientists — exceeding their 2018 pace, the year they gained 40 House seats.