Poll shows Crowley narrowly ahead of Tiffany in Wisconsin governor’s race
League of American Workers founder and CatholicVote senior political advisor Steve Cortes says undecided voters and turnout could decide the race as Crowley leads Tiffany by about 3.1 percentage points.
Democrat David Crowley holds a narrow lead over Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin’s governor’s race, according to a new poll released less than a week before Election Day. Steve Cortes, whose organization commissioned the survey, says the close contest reflects competitive races across the country.
The survey, conducted by Wick for the League of American Workers Oct. 19-23, found Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, with 47.7% support among likely voters, compared with Tiffany’s 44.6%. Another 7.7% were undecided.
Cortes, founder of the League of American Workers and CatholicVote’s senior political advisor, said in an Oct. 28 article that the poll reveals the gubernatorial contest “will remain very tight into the final stages.”
“In such races, the side that can turn out a larger share of fervent base voters will prevail,” he added.
The poll surveyed 1,213 likely voters and had a reported margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Crowley led Tiffany by 3.1 points. Among respondents, 28.3% were Democrats, 31.9% were independents, 34.1% were Republicans, and 5.7% identified as “something else.”
Cortes pointed to Tiffany’s advantage among those undecided voters as a potential opening for Republicans.
“If the legacy media in Wisconsin pursues the very serious allegations of a dirty payoff to David Crowley, this poll tells me the undecided and leaning voters will break for Tiffany and determine the race,” he said, according to an Oct. 28 Daily Signal report.
Crowley has faced scrutiny over his approval of rental assistance contracts with a nonprofit that employed his wife, prompting Republicans to question whether the arrangement posed a conflict of interest.
The Daily Signal reported that Milwaukee County reported in November 2022 that it had distributed $65.4 million in federal rental assistance through Community Advocates since June 2020 — the month Ericka Crowley joined the organization and a month after her husband became county executive. Crowley has maintained that his wife’s employment did not play any role in the funding decisions.
An unnamed Democratic operative also alleged in an Oct. 23 Daily Wire report that Crowley agreed to withdraw from his party’s primary and endorse a rival in exchange for a promised $250,000 for his political activities and a job for his wife in a future administration. As Zeale News reported, Crowley reentered the race days after dropping out. His campaign has disputed the allegations.
In an Oct. 28 X video, Cortes called Crowley a “political puppet who cut a dirty deal for a payoff to exit the race, and he then jumped back into the race under super shady circumstances, all at the behest of Democrat Party insiders.”
Still, Cortes warned that economic concerns could weigh on GOP candidates.
“The economy remains the driver for most persuadable voters, which is problematic for GOP nominees,” Cortes said, according to The Daily Signal. “However, the Democrats have nominated ideologically extreme, unlikable, unimpressive candidates, including David Crowley in Wisconsin, giving the Republicans a fighting chance.”
Nearly half of respondents, 47.5%, said their personal financial situation had worsened over the past year. Another 34.9% said it had stayed the same, while just 17% said it had improved, according to the poll.
Respondents were closely divided over whether they would be better off financially if former Vice President Kamala Harris were president instead of President Donald Trump: 41.5% said their situation would be better, compared with 40.9% who said it would be worse. Another 11.3% expected no difference.
The poll also found that 51.9% strongly disapproved of Trump’s job performance. The remaining respondents somewhat disapproved, somewhat approved, or strongly approved.
Cortes argued that the findings, alongside his recent Arizona polling, pointed to improving approval for Trump and tightening races.
“This poll reinforces the overall theme that nearly every contested race is tied,” he said, according to The Daily Signal. “In a photo finish, turnout operations will decide — who gets their supporters out, from right now for early voting, and into game day itself?”
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