Male support for President Donald Trump has dropped 20 points since November 2024, and CNN data correspondent Harry Enten is sounding the alarm for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms.
"Donald Trump and Republicans won in 2024 because of support from male voters," Enten said in a March 24 CNN segment. "Male voters are abandoning Donald Trump. There is no way on God's green Earth that the Republican Party can hold on to the House of Representatives if this number holds."
https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/2036492765828157714?s=20
Trump won men’s support by 13 points over Kamala Harris in November 2024. He is now 7 points underwater among male voters – a 20-point swing.
The drop is steepest among young men in particular. Trump won men under 25 by 5 points in 2024, Enten noted, but the President is now 19 points underwater with that group.
Enten identified cost-of-living and inflation as primary drivers of the massive shift. With men, Trump's trust advantage regarding the economy has reversed by 40 points – from leading Harris by 10 points before the election to trailing by 30 points now among men.
Two other issues have contributed to the shift. Gas prices have jumped from $2.94 to $3.95 per gallon, and youth unemployment for Americans ages 16 to 24 now stands at 10.8% – the highest since 2021. Roughly 4 in 10 Americans under 30 say they are "barely getting by.”
Enten drew his numbers from a Yahoo/YouGov poll conducted March 12 to 16. The poll found that 2 in 3 Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling the cost of living, while just 26% approve.
Republicans depend on winning men by a wide margin to offset a deficit with women voters. Without that margin, Enten warned, the party's House majority – and potentially its Senate majority – could be at risk in November.