U.S. Catholics backed President Donald Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 by a 14-percentage point margin, but the Catholic vote ahead of the 2026 midterms could be difficult to secure due to shifting opinions on policy and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations, recent data suggest.
In 2024, 56% of Catholic voters supported Trump and 42% voted for Harris, according to an analysis of Cooperative Election Study data by statistician Ryan Burge. Zeale News previously reported that the result constituted a decisive move toward the GOP that broke with a longstanding tendency to be very closely divided over presidential candidates. The widened margin — up from a four-point margin in 2016, when Trump first ran for office — was partly driven by increased support from non-white Catholics.
Zeale News reported in December 2025 that an EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research poll found that majorities of Catholics approved of Trump and his stance on immigration. Fifty-four percent said they supported mass detention and deportation of illegal immigrants, and about 52% said they had favorable opinions of Trump.
Though Catholics said at the time that they approved of Trump’s handling of illegal immigration, national debate over ICE operations, especially those in Minnesota, may change opinions.
Church leaders have also spoken out against deportations and ICE, inviting Catholics to make further considerations in their views. November 2025, the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops released a statement opposing “the indiscriminate mass deportation of people.” After ICE agents fatally shot two civilians in Minneapolis during enforcement operations last month, Cardinal Joseph Tobin, archbishop of Newark, New Jersey, decried Trump’s approach to immigration and called ICE a “lawless organization,” according to PBS News. The outlet also reported that the cardinal asked Catholics to pressure lawmakers to block a funding bill that includes money for ICE.
According to the Times of San Diego, hundreds of Catholics, including several bishops, signed a letter to the Senate Jan. 28 and urged lawmakers not to advance the ICE funding bill since it lacks “strong safeguards for family unity, due process, and accountability.”
The Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) released a report Feb. 3 and found that the majority of Americans (56%) distrusted ICE in 2025. About four in 10 white Catholics said they had little to no confidence in ICE and roughly the same said they oppose increased funding for ICE. Nearly seven in 10 Hispanic Catholics had little to no confidence in ICE and seven in 10 also opposed more ICE funding. The findings suggest that skepticism toward ICE — particularly among Hispanic Catholics — could complicate GOP efforts to maintain recent gains with Catholic voters.