Pew: Catholic voters split closely in midterm House races, narrowly favoring Democrats

Catholic registered voters are closely divided between Democratic and Republican candidates in this year’s U.S. House elections, with Democrats holding a three-percentage-point edge, according to a Pew Research Center analysis released Oct. 13.

Forty-two percent of Catholic respondents said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate if the election were held at the time of the survey, compared with 39% who backed the Republican. Another 19% supported another candidate or were unsure. Pew’s analysis did not break down Catholic voters’ preferences by Mass attendance frequency.

The results varied widely within the Catholic electorate. White Catholics favored Republicans over Democrats, 50% to 32%, while Hispanic Catholics favored Democrats, 59% to 19%. 

The findings come as Democrats hold an advantage among registered voters nationwide, according to the survey, which Pew conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4 among 5,062 U.S. adults, including 3,917 registered voters. 

Overall, 44% of all registered voters supported their district’s Democratic House candidate, while 36% preferred the Republican. Another 20% supported someone else or were not sure. 

Pew noted that the analysis includes all registered voters, many of whom may not vote in the midterms. In the 2022 midterm elections, 46% of eligible voters cast ballots.

Pew also found that supporters of Democratic House candidates were more engaged in the election and more motivated to vote than Republican supporters. Sixty-three percent said they were extremely motivated to vote, compared with 46% of Republican supporters. Half of Democratic supporters said they had given the election “a lot” of thought, compared with 36% of Republican supporters.

White evangelical Protestants remained the strongest Republican constituency among the religious groups Pew analyzed. Nearly three-quarters (73%) said they would vote for the Republican House candidate in their district, compared with 12% who supported the Democratic candidate.

White nonevangelical Protestants were more closely divided, with 45% supporting Republicans and 37% backing Democrats — a difference Pew reported was not statistically significant.

Atheists, agnostics, and black Protestants showed the strongest support for Democrats over Republicans: 81% to 9% among atheists, 75% to 13% among agnostics, and 74% to 6% among black Protestants. 

The survey also found declining approval of President Donald Trump across all religious groups Pew analyzed since the beginning of his second term.

Among Catholics, 30% approved of his job performance and 67% disapproved. His Catholic approval rating stood at 47% in early 2025. Unlike the election-preference findings, those results include all Catholic adults surveyed, rather than only registered voters.

White evangelical Protestants were the only religious group analyzed in which more adults approved than disapproved of Trump’s job performance, 58% to 40%. Even among that group, his approval rating fell from 78% in early 2025.

In every other group, more disapproved than approved. Atheists, agnostics, and black Protestants were the most likely to disapprove of Trump’s job performance.

Across the electorate, the economy ranked as the top voting issue, with 84% of registered voters saying it was a very important factor in their voting decisions. 

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