With 35 Senate races on the ballot and seven open seats, Democrats face a narrow path to retake control of the chamber in 2026, according to a July 15 report from the left-leaning political site DemList.
The most recent development came in June, when North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced he would not seek reelection. His decision followed intraparty backlash over his opposition to President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
Republicans are defending 22 seats — including three open ones — while Democrats are defending 13, according to DemList. The Senate currently consists of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. To regain the majority, Democrats would need a net gain of four seats, DemList said.
DemList identifies Democrats’ top targets as the newly open North Carolina seat and two “vulnerable GOP incumbents” — Susan Collins of Maine and Joni Ernst of Iowa.
Democrats are also watching Ohio, where former Lt. Gov. Jon Husted is serving as interim senator, completing Vice President JD Vance’s unexpired term. DemList rates that seat as “likely Republican” but notes that former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown may enter the race.
Other potential battlegrounds include Nebraska, where 2024 Independent Senate nominee Dan Osborn is challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, and Alaska, where former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is reportedly considering a run against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. However, DemList sources suggest Peltola may instead pursue Alaska’s open gubernatorial race.
Democrats are also preparing to defend several vulnerable seats of their own.
Of the party’s 13 seats up for reelection, DemList considers nine safe. The remaining four — Georgia, and three of the four open seats in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire — are expected to face intense Republican pressure. Democrats are especially concerned about Georgia and Michigan, which both flipped red in the 2024 presidential election.