Democrat super PAC trims ad buys in 3 GOP-held House seats

House Majority PAC (HMP), the super PAC aligned with House Democrats, pulled back its ad spending the week of Oct. 19 in three Republican-leaning districts in Tennessee, Florida, and Colorado, Axios reported Oct. 20, citing AdImpact and a source familiar with the matter. Democrats have struggled to match Republicans’ fundraising this cycle, and Republicans also benefit from outside groups including MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk’s America PAC.

“I’m not sure what HMP was thinking here,” Phil Gardner, a senior adviser for Blue Dog Action, a centrist group backing Democrat Bale Dalton in Florida’s 7th District, told Axios. “The rest of the party is not triaging this seat,” he said, citing a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll and plans by House Minority Whip Katherine Clark to campaign there. 

Gardner said he agrees with “95% of the decisions HMP’s made this cycle” but called it “bonkers” that the group is spending heavily in Maine’s 2nd District while cutting its Florida investment in Dalton. An HMP spokesman, CJ Warnke, told Axios in response that the group is focused on taking back the House.

In Tennessee’s 5th District, HMP cut its ad reservations from nearly $1.6 million to a little over $500,000 as of Oct. 19, Axios reported. In that contest, Republican Charlie Hatcher faces Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, a Democrat and a top recruit of the party’s House campaign arm. Trump won the district by 21 points in 2024 and Cook Political Report rates it “solidly Republican.”

In Florida’s 7th District, HMP cut reservations from $3.9 million to $1.95 million. Republican Ryan Elijah, a former local news anchor, faces Democrat Bale Dalton, a retired Navy captain and former NASA chief of staff, Fox 35 reported. Cook rates the race “likely Republican,” though a poll the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released Oct. 20 had the two tied at 45% each. Blue Dog Action spent nearly $500,000 to help Dalton win the primary but has not yet invested in the general election, Axios reported.

In Colorado’s 3rd District, HMP cut spending from more than $2.1 million to less than $1.1 million. Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd faces Democrat Dwayne Romero, whom Axios described as a real estate company CEO and Army veteran seen by party operatives as lacking the momentum of Jessica Killin in the neighboring 5th District. Axios also reported smaller cuts, which HMP calls “shaves,” in Arizona’s 2nd and Texas’s 23rd districts, both rated “likely Republican.” It reported the group pulled back in seats held by Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman of Ohio and Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan, and in the districts of retiring Republican Reps. Darrell Issa of California and Don Bacon of Nebraska, which Democrats hope to flip.

While it is making spending cuts, HMP said in an Oct. 27 news release that it is launching 13 new television ads in 11 districts.

Each targets a Republican incumbent or nominee, with themes including their voting records alongside President Donald Trump, higher costs, and the war in Iran. In Colorado’s 3rd, the ad contrasts Rep. Jeff Hurd’s support for Trump’s tariffs and the war with Romero, whom HMP described as an Iraq combat veteran and Bronze Star recipient. The release does not mention Tennessee’s 5th or Florida’s 7th, where Axios reported cuts.

The money was redirected to districts the party views as core battlegrounds, including some Trump won by double digits, and HMP added at least $4.7 million across nearly two dozen districts in two days. 

“Next week, Democrats will take back the House, and Hakeem Jeffries will be elected the next Speaker,” HMP President Mike Smith predicted, according to the Daily Caller, which reported that the group is spending $2.2 million in Minnesota’s 1st District and $380,000 in Indiana’s 5th. Trump won those Republican-held districts by 12 and 17 points in 2024.

Republican groups are also trimming. The Daily Caller reported that the Congressional Leadership Fund cut $6 million from Florida’s 25th District and that Trump’s No Stepping Back PAC cut $3 million from Texas’s 28th. Broadcast-booking data from FCC filings showed Republican-aligned groups booked $54.69 million over 14 days through Oct. 20, compared with $19.04 million for Democratic-aligned groups. The figures measure airtime booked, not money spent, and exclude digital and streaming ads.

Cook Political Report on Oct. 23 moved 19 House races toward Democrats and none toward Republicans. Cook analyst Erin Covey wrote that Republicans’ path to keeping the majority has “all but evaporated.” Cook’s ratings show 219 seats at least leaning Democratic, with 17 toss-ups.

Despite the political winds appearing to favor the Democrats, House Majority Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told Fox News on Oct. 26 that he thinks the polls are being influenced by Republicans being unwilling to participate in surveys.