Reports: Democratic operatives quietly worry that a ‘blue wave’ might not reach November’s shore

Democratic strategists are warning behind closed doors that key races may be much tighter than Democratic Party leadership is expecting, despite polls generally showing Democrats in the lead over Republicans.

According to Politico, one unnamed Democratic strategist referred to recent polling numbers as “too rosy,” while an unnamed Democratic representative in a “close race” warned that House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., may be disappointed with November’s election results.

“They’re expecting a blue wave,” the Democrat said to Politico. “It’s starting to feel overhyped. Dems are going to win 20 seats? I don’t know. It doesn’t feel like that to me.”

David Plouffe, a political strategist known for running Barack Obama’s successful 2008 presidential campaign and advising Kamala Harris’ unsuccessful 2024 campaign, similarly advised Democrats not to take a “blue wave” for granted.

He pointed to the Senate race in North Carolina, where Democratic nominee and former governor Roy Cooper is leading Republican nominee and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley in the polls, as an example. While he called Cooper’s campaign “the best run race in the country,” Plouffe warned Democrats at the national level “that doesn’t mean that we can rest easy.”

“There’s certain states that elections happen within a bound, and this one will be that way as well,” he said, according to Politico. “We have to win the ones we have to win.”

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Plouffe’s warning comes as Democrats at the national level shift their resources away from races like North Carolina’s and funnel funding into what were initially considered long-shot races, like Democrat Adam Hamilton’s challenge against incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan.

Pollsters and data analysts have also sounded the alarm, warning that polls are likely missing crucial factors, possibly leading Democrats to overestimate their chances nationwide.

“Waves are normal in midterms. A tsunami where it changes terrain, or a realigning election — inherently people should be skeptical of one of those until it happens,” pollster Nate Silver said, according to Politico.

“People should be aware that if you have a so-called systematic polling error, then it’s not a bunch of independent coin flips,” he added. “Every single state can be off by a couple of points.”

Silver’s FiveThirtyEight polling aggregate model predicted that former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton had a 71% chance of winning the 2016 presidential election. His current midterm forecast model gives Democrats a 73.8% chance of winning a majority of Senate seats.

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